2008 record      


The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved by 1.9 points, or 4.0%, in February posting 49.4 vs. 47.5 in January. The index is 7.0 points above its 12-month average of 42.4 and 5.0 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the recession, and 0.4 points below its all-time average of 49.9.

Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate pessimism.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the national poll of 915 adults from January 29 to February 4. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components, two of which increased in February.

• The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, decreased 0.6 points, or 1.2%, to 50.2. The sub-index was 32.1 when the economy entered the last recession in December 2007.

• The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, gained 1.7 points, or 3.1%, to reach 57.4.

Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working rose 4.5 points, or 12.5%, to reach 40.5.

"Consumer confidence shows a good improvement for the sixth month in a row, bucking the 80% probability to decline in February,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.

“While the recent job report was a catalyst to boost confidence, the report does not adequately reflect the dark side of the job situation in the country,” said Terry Jones, Associate Editor of Investor’s Business Daily. “According to our survey, 22% of households have at least one member looking for employment now which translates to approximately 29 million Americans."

The Breakdown

This month, eleven of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP tracks were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. Fifteen groups increased on the index.

On the Economic Outlook component, twelve of the 21 groups that IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. Ten groups improved in February.

On the Personal Financial component, twenty-one of the groups IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. Thirteen groups improved on the component and eight declined.

On the Federal Policies component, three of the 21 demographic groups tracked were above 50. Nineteen groups advanced on the component and two declined.
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The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with 80% reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of 900-plus adults chosen at random nationwide. The poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month.

For more information, go to www.tipponline.com. To license the IBD/TIPP Poll, please contact: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Investor's Business Daily is a leading financial news and research organization recognized for proprietary stock screens, comparative performance ratings and a record of identifying stock leaders as they emerge. IBD’s companion website, Investors.com, offers stock tools and research for investors of every level. These include the IBD University learning center, IBD TV market videos and audio interviews, intraday reports on market action and the IBD Stock Checkup®. IBD hosts popular investment workshops and provides Home Study programs based on top-performing growth strategy, The CAN SLIM® Investing System. The newspaper was founded April 9, 1984 by William J. O’Neil, who originated the investing system that has outperformed major market indexes* for decades.

*The American Association of Individual Investors' independent "real time" study of 63 leading strategies found IBD’s CAN SLIM Investment System achieved an annualized return of +25.2% for the past 14 years (January 1998 through December 31, 2011, AAII Stock Screen). It is the #1 long-term growth strategy measured by AAII Journal.

IBD/TIPP Poll © 2012 Investor’s Business Daily Inc. and Technometrica Inc.

© 2012 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily, IBD, and CAN SLIM and their corresponding logos are registered trademarks of Investor’s Business Daily, Inc.

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