The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, indicates that consumer confidence has remained steady, with the June reading at 51.3, the same as May’s index reading. This remains slightly above the 12-month average of 51. It also marks the ninth consecutive month above 50, which indicates optimism.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the national telephone poll of 903 adults from May 30 to June 6 using live interviewers and both cell phone and landline numbers. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. In addition to the Economic Optimism Index, IBD/TIPP surveyed respondents on issues of presidential leadership and key political issues (see separate story here for details).
“We’ve seen a sustained level of positive economic sentiment over the past nine months, which is more than just the so-called ‘Trump Bump’,” said Terry Jones, Commentary Editor of Investor’s Business Daily. “With a roaring stock market and solid job gains, everyone is doing well, so people tend to generally feel good about the economy.”
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. This month, two of the three index components increased.
• The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, increased 3.2 percent to 51.2 from last month’s 49.6. This brings the sub-index back into positive territory, halting two consecutive months of decline. It is also considerably higher than the 32.1 reading when the economy entered the last recession in December 2007.
• The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, increased just slightly to 57.2 from 57.1, ending two months of decline.
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, dropped 3.6 percent to 45.4 from 47.1.
“Our index has posted positive sentiment for nine months in a row, it’s the longest positive stretch over the past ten years -- thanks to a good job market, relatively low gasoline prices, a bull market with solid gains in retirement savings accounts, and an administration many see as business-friendly, ” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, IBD's polling partner.
This month, 12 of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP tracks were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. Nine groups improved on the index, while 10 declined. Two groups maintained the same reading. This is the sharpest change since Trump took office in January, when 20 of the 21 demographic groups -- such as age, income, race and party preference -- tracked by the IBD/TIPP Poll were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index and 15 groups expressed increased optimism.
On the Economic Outlook component, 11 of the 21 groups that IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. Ten groups improved on the component while 11 declined.
On the Personal Financial component, 18 groups IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. Eleven groups increased while 10 declined.
On the Federal Policies component, three of the 21 demographic groups tracked were above 50. Seven groups advanced on the component and 14 declined.
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ABOUT THE IBD©/TIPP POLL
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with good reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of 900-plus adults chosen at random nationwide. The national poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month by live interviewers and both cell phone and landlines.
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