The latest IBD/TIPP poll shows that President Trump's job approval rating hasn't changed, but the public is more upbeat about almost everything else. And most say impeachment talk is premature.
Trump's job approval number remains unchanged, with 38% saying they approve of the job he's doing, while 56% disapprove. His net favorability is also unchanged from April, at -17 points (39% favorable, 56% unfavorable).
However, the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index now has Trump at 42.1. That a 2.2% gain from last month and up 17% from last August, which marked Trump's low point on this exclusive index.
IBD/TIPP conducted the poll from April 26 to May 4. It includes responses from 900 people, giving it a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.
The May IBD/TIPP poll finds that the public is increasingly happy with the direction of the country, as well as with their own quality of life and financial stress levels. They also give Trump higher marks on leadership and on his handling of the economy.
Forty-six percent now say they're satisfied with the direction of the country, a three-point gain over April and the highest since Trump's first full month in office. The current satisfaction reading is also far higher than the 37% average under President Obama.
Quality Of Life Up, Stress Down
The IBD/TIPP Quality of Life Index jumped 5.6% this month to reach 62.7. That's the highest this index has been since October 2004, and the second highest since IBD/TIPP started this index 17 years ago. The index averaged 53.7 under Obama.
And financial stress levels dropped sharply in May to 49.9 — marking the first time this index has been under 50 since IBD/TIPP started it in December 2017. (The lower the financial stress index the better.) The average under President Obama was 59.4.
The survey also found that thepercentageof households deemed "job sensitive" — either someone in the household is looking for work or is worried about being laid off — dropped for the fourth consecutive month to 23%.
The IBD/TIPP poll also found that Trump is gaining ground, if slowly, on his handling of the economy and of terrorism, and his overall performance as president.
The May survey found that 42% rate his handling of the economy as "excellent" or "good" — up a point from last month. Thirty-seven percent rate it as "poor" or "unacceptable."
On terrorism, 43% give him high marks, up two points from last month.
Impeachment Talk Premature
On impeachment, the poll finds that 56% of those who've been following the Russia collusion story closely say impeachment talk is premature. Among independents in this group, 58% say it's premature.
However, a substantial majority (68%) of Democrats following the collusion story closely think today's talk about impeachment is appropriate. Just 30% say it's premature.
Democratic leaders have been warning their rank and file that Trump impeachment talk in the midterm elections could backfire.
In a New York Times op-ed, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) urged Democrats to avoid running on impeaching President Trump in the midterms. "If impeachment is seen by a substantial part of the country as merely an effort to nullify an election by other means," he wrote, "there will be no impeachment, no matter how high the crime or serious the misdemeanor."
He urged Democrats instead "to focus on the economy, family and a return to basic decency."
Lagging Other Polls
Trump continues to lag on approval compared with other polls. At 38%, his approval rating in the IBD/TIPP poll is below the Real Clear Politics Average, which before including the IBD/TIPP poll results stood at 44.2% approval.
Raghavan Mayur, President of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll, notes that the survey sample and method of polling can explain the difference.
"IBD/TIPP conducts its surveys by telephone using live interviewers, and are based on two-thirds cellphones and one-third landlines," he says. "Many of the polls that show 44% approval or more for Trump utilize survey panels or Robo methodology."
In addition, IBD/TIPP results include all adults over age 18, while other polls tend to limit responses to registered voters.
"We believe it is important for polls to reflect the pulse of overall adult population in the U.S.," Mayur says, "and not just the electorate."
Methodology: The April IBD/TIPP Poll was conducted April 26-May 4. It includes responses from 900 people nationwide, who were asked questions by live interviewers on phones. The poll's margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. (Toplines from the May IBD/TIPP Poll will post here later this week.)
The IBD/TIPP Poll has been credited as being the most accurate poll in the past four presidential elections, and was one of only two that correctly predicted the outcome of the November presidential election.
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