When our polling showed four years ago that doctors planned to leave the profession if the Democrats' interpretation of health care reform became law, we were ridiculed mercilessly. But, as a new poll shows, we were right.
In 2009, our IBD/TIPP Poll asked 1,376 randomly chosen practicing physicians from across the country what they thought about the health care "reform" being considered at that time.
It found that 45% of doctors "would consider leaving their practice or taking an early retirement" if Congress passed the plan the White House and the Democratic majority in Congress had in mind.
Our findings couldn't possibly be correct, said the critics.
Nate Silver, the august statistician and polling expert, then of the New York Times, said our survey "is simply not credible" and should be "completely" ignored.
"The IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they're doing," he said. "I mean, literally none."
Writing in the National Journal, Mark Blumenthal said the IBD/TIPP Poll shouldn't be trusted.
PolitiFact said "polling experts have raised significant questions about the poll's methodology."
It was called "shoddy," "out of whack," "ludicrous" and "not trustworthy." We also heard that our poll was "shabby" and "garbage."
But almost a year later, we were vindicated. An August 2010 Merritt Hawkins survey of 2,379 doctors conducted for the Physicians Foundation revealed that 40% of doctors said they would "retire, seek a nonclinical job in health care, or seek a job or business unrelated to health care" over the next three years as the overhaul was phased in.
Those three years are up, the country has found out what's in ObamaCare, and the story remains the same.
The Deloitte 2013 Survey of U.S. Physicians found that six in 10 doctors say "it is likely that many physicians will retire earlier than planned in the next one to three years" — that is, in the age of ObamaCare — "while more than half believe that physicians will retire (62%) or scale back practice hours (55%) based on how the future of medicine is changing."
The responses were not made to questions asking directly about ObamaCare.
But it's quite clear that "the future of medicine is changing" due to ObamaCare and that significant shifts in health care are coming in the next one to three years because of the way the Democrats' reform is convulsing the industry.
Oddly, the Deloitte survey noted that 44% of physicians think that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is a "good start" while 38% believe it's a "step in the wrong direction."
If so many think it's a good start, then why is such a large percentage also so pessimistic about medicine's future that it thinks doctors will be leaving the profession early?
Looking a little deeper into the data we find that 48% of surgical specialists believe ObamaCare is a "step in the wrong direction" while 38% say it's a "good start."
Maybe it's the surgeons, those rogues Obama says are so greedy that they needlessly amputate feet for quick cash, who are seeing the ravages of ObamaCare the earliest and finding it to be objectionable.
One of these days, or years, ObamaCare's creators and their media toadies might remove their unamputated feet from their always-running mouths and admit they were wrong.
For the time being, the IBD/TIPP Poll — as it has in every election this century — continues to be vindicated.