Joe Biden remains the Democratic front-runner, but Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren jumped to within four points of the former vice president in September's IBD/TIPP Poll.
Biden remained the surest choice in the 2020 election vs. President Donald Trump, with a 12-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup. Warren had a narrow 3-point edge.
Biden Vs. Warren Race
Elizabeth Warren had the support of 24% of registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, up from 17% in August. Joe Biden's support dipped to 28% from 30%.
Meanwhile, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came in a distant third at 12%, unchanged from August. Support for Calif. Sen. Kamala Harris sank to 6% from 11% in August.
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg slipped a point to 5%. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker had the backing of 4%, up from 2% in August. No other candidate polled more than 1%. Another 15% of respondents said they were undecided.
Biden Vs. Trump: Joe Keeps Big 2020 Election Lead
In a head-to-head 2020 election contest of Biden vs. Trump, the IBD/TIPP Poll found a 54%-42% advantage for Biden. A month earlier, Biden led Trump by 13 points. Sanders had a narrow 49%-45% edge over Trump, while Warren and Harris had slimmer 49%-46% leads.
Independents preferred Biden vs. Trump, 55%-37%. Warren edges Trump with independents, 47%-45%, while Sanders has a 51%-42% advantage.
Elizabeth Warren Leads Among Whites, Liberals
In the Democratic nomination matchup, Biden polled 28% support among both women and men. Warren's support rose to 27% among women, but 19% among men.
Warren led all candidates among whites, with 26% support to Biden's 24% and 14% for Sanders. That suggests early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, whose demographics tilt white, offer her a potential opening. Yet polling ahead of the Granite State primary has shown Warren trailing Biden and Sanders there. That could make Iowa's caucus a must win for her.
Elizabeth Warren is the favorite among self-described liberals, with 35% vs. 18% for Joe Biden and 14% for socialist Bernie Sanders. Biden dominates among self-described conservative or moderate voters who are Democrats or Democrat-leaning, with 41% and 33% of those groups.
Blacks, Hispanics, Older Voters Favor Biden
Biden has a big edge among black and Hispanics, leading with 33% support to 19% for Elizabeth Warren and 10% for Bernie Sanders. That's consistent with Biden's big lead in polls of the key early South Carolina primary.
Support for Biden was tepid among younger voters. Sanders led among 25-44 age group, with Biden in third. But Biden's dominating lead among older voters puts him in the driver's seat for the Democratic nomination, at least for now.
Biden leads among Democratic investors, with 23% support. Warren and Sanders, who are proposing more sweeping changes to spending, taxes and regulation than Biden, are at 16%.
October's poll, coming after the Sept. 12 debate in which Biden will finally appear on the same stage as Warren, may offer the first solid evidence as to whether his lead will be sustainable.
The September IBD/TIPP Poll reflected 903 responses collected from Aug. 22-30 and has a margin of error of 3.3%. The 2020 general election matchup polling reflects 848 registered voters. The Democratic nomination polling reflects 360 registered voters who are either Democrats or lean Democrat.
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