Former Vice President Joe Biden is back in front of Elizabeth Warren, the November IBD/TIPP Poll of the Democratic nomination contest finds. Biden had narrowly slipped from the top spot in October. Both candidates have solid leads over President Donald Trump in head-to-head polling, though Biden remains the Democrat best positioned to retake the White House in the 2020 election.
Biden Bounces, Warren Wanes
Joe Biden had the support of 29% in the November IBD/TIPP Poll, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 23% and Bernie Sanders at 13%. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg registered 7% support, followed by Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3%.
The November IBD/TIPP Poll represents something of a bounceback for Biden. His support had slipped to 26%, while Warren's had grown to 27% in October, though her lead was still within the margin of error.
Joe Biden Vs. Trump And Other Potential 2020 Election Matchups
The November IBD/TIPP Poll finds Biden with a 10-point lead over President Trump, 53%-43%, up from 7 points in October. Elizabeth Warren's lead over Trump increased to 8 points, 52%-44%, from just 2 points in October.
Bernie Sanders also led Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 51%-44%, widening his lead to 7 points from 4 in the prior month.
Trump's polling drop came as his job approval rating fell to 39% from 43% in the November IBD/TIPP Poll. Meanwhile 61% of Americans following news of the House investigation support the Trump impeachment inquiry. That includes 64% of independents.
Are Investors Souring On Trump?
The November IBD/TIPP Poll found a big shift among self-described investors. Among this group, Biden's lead over Trump jumped to 19 points, 58%-39%, from just 2 points.
Meanwhile, investors favored Warren over Trump, 57%-41%, in November, reversing Trump's 4-point edge in October.
The shift of investors toward Democrats, especially Elizabeth Warren, would be remarkable, if sustained. A number of Wall Street big shots have warned that stocks could fall 25% if Warren were elected. Some big Democratic donors on Wall Street have said they wouldn't support Warren, who backs a wealth tax, Big Tech breakup and other sweeping measures.
Warren, Sanders Divide Liberals
A Bernie Sanders bounce may partly explain Elizabeth Warren's slippage in the November IBD/TIPP Poll. Overall, Sanders' support rose to 13% from 10%.
Among self-described liberals, Warren's support dipped 4 points to 34%, while Sanders' rose 5 points to 16%. Biden had the support of 19%, also up 5 points. Joe Biden remained the clear leader among conservative Democratic primary voters (51% to Warren's 4%) and self-described moderates (34%-15%).
Among white voters, Warren's lead over Biden narrowed to 2 points, 23%-21%, down from 13 points in October. Biden led Warren 42% to 19% among black and Hispanic voters.
Among self-described Democratic investors, 29% back Joe Biden vs. 25% for Elizabeth Warren and 11% for Bernie Sanders.
College graduates prefer Warren, who has 29% support among the group. Biden has the backing of 24% of college grads to 12% for Sanders.
Where Does The Democratic Nomination Race Go From Here?
The November IBD/TIPP Poll results raise the possibility that the Elizabeth Warren surge has peaked. The Massachusetts liberal senator has taken fire for her support of Medicare for All. That's not going to die down. On Friday, she released a plan to substantially fund the shift to a single-payer health insurance system with more than $20 trillion in federal offsets, mainly from tax hikes.
A key question is whether Warren will go on the attack against Biden. His long voting record, including support for 2003 Iraq war and 2005 bankruptcy bill, makes him vulnerable.
While polling validates Biden's electability claim, his support may be softer after Republican attacks on his family's business dealings. The November IBD/TIPP Poll finds 53%-42% support for a Department of Justice investigation into Biden and son Hunter's actions in Ukraine and China. Still, that's down from 57%-37% support for a Biden investigation in the October poll. So far there is no evidence of wrongdoing on Biden's part for helping to push out a Ukrainian prosecutor with a weak record in taking on corruption. That happened as his son served on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company. The owner of the company had previously been under investigation.
Top Priorities For Congress?
Among Americans following the Trump impeachment news, 23% say that immigration should be the No. 1 priority for Congress. That's just ahead of the 22% who see Trump impeachment as the most urgent concern. Other top issues include prescription drug prices (15%), infrastructure (13%), gun control (12%) and the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement (9%).
The IBD/TIPP Poll reflects responses from 903 adults contacted via mobile phones and landlines from Oct. 24-31 and carries a 3.3-point margin of error. Polling for the Democratic presidential nomination includes a subset of 361 Democrats and independents who lean Democrat. Trump impeachment-related questions reflect the views of a subset of 768 people following the recent news about the House impeachment inquiry.
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