2008 record      


The beach season may be over, but on the campaign trail the waves are still cresting.

The latest IBD/TIPP poll released Monday shows Republicans hanging a 10-point advantage over the Democrats in the generic congressional ballot.

Likely voters favor Republican control of Congress vs. Democrats, 50%-40%. Back in May, the poll found the parties tied, 42%-42%.

Independents back a GOP Congress by 49%-33%. Even 10% of Democrats prefer that. Just 2% of Republicans favor the status quo.

"The current job situation, a lackluster economic recovery, ballooning deficits and a yearning for small government are all helping Republicans," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll.

Polling expert Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said the results reflect the economy and disillusionment with President Obama. "When he came into office, most people thought he had a very ambitious agenda," she said. "They didn't necessarily think it was a liberal one. They've changed their minds about that."

September's IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index fell 0.1 point to 47.1, a new Obama low. Sub-50 readings signal disapproval.

The IBD generic poll is in line with other surveys. The GOP leads by 12 points (Rasmussen), 13 (ABC News) and seven (Democratic firm Democracy Corps).

A recent Gallup poll found no lead for either party. But in late August, Gallup gave the GOP a record 10-point lead. The prior high was five points in 1994 and 2002. Democrats typically have a modest lead on the generic ballot, reflecting their voter registration edge. The polls don't reflect in dividual races, where candidates, local demographics, campaign spending and other factors weigh heavily. They do suggest GOP candidates are getting a head start while Democrats face an uphill battle to win over swing voters.

Among investors, the GOP is the clear choice against Democrats — 55%-38% — IBD/TIPP found.

Women favor Democrats by just one point, 46%-45%. Men prefer GOP control by 56%-33%. Three-quarters of GOP voters say they are very interested in the Nov. 2 elections vs. 53% of Democrats.

IBD/TIPP polled 908 Americans — 768 likely voters — Sept. 7-12. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points.

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