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IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Tracking Poll: Day 18 Analysis

The latest Trump vs. Biden poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden's lead widening slightly, but President Donald Trump still within reach down the stretch. However, four key groups continue to tilt the race in the Democrat's favor, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update suggests.

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll update finds the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 4.7 points, 50%-45.3%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Biden's lead was 4.6 points on Wednesday.

Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 1.5%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8% in the latest Biden vs. Trump poll.

For more details, check out the IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll page.

2020 Presidential Poll Trend: Four-Way Race

The IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll finds Biden's lead stabilizing just short of 5 points over the past three days. Biden's lead had stretched out to 7 points after the debate, but Trump narrowed the gap in Tuesday's presidential poll. Trump has been as close as 2.3 points, on Oct. 20, and down by as much as 8.6 points, on Oct. 13.

The president's support slipped from his high-water mark of 46.3% on Tuesday to 45.3% in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll. Biden's support has held at 50% or higher for five straight days, though slipping from 51.7% on Monday.

Amid the ups and downs in the IBD/TIPP Biden vs. Trump poll, four groups key to Biden's 2020 election chances have remained consistent. Suburban voters back the Democrat by a solid margin. Wayward Trump voters are costing the president a small but significant share of his 2016 support. Meanwhile, Biden holds a clear advantage among those who voted for a third party or didn't vote in 2016.

Head-To-Head Trump Vs Biden Poll

In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 5.5 points, 50.3%-44.8%, up from 5 points a day earlier.

Biden's head-to-head lead had narrowed to just 1.8 points on Oct. 21. His widest lead, 10.4 points, came in the Oct. 12 presidential poll.

2020 Presidential Poll: Party Breakdown

Joe Biden leads by 6 points among likely independent voters, 48% to 42%, in IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update. The Democratic nominee's lead has recently been as little as 2 points, after previously reaching into double digits.

Meanwhile, Biden leads 95%-3% among Democrats, while Trump leads 94%-3% among Republicans in the latest presidential poll.

2016 Voters In 2020 Election Poll

Wayward 2016 Trump voters continue to be an issue for the president, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 6.5% say they now support Biden, while 91% say they've decided to back Trump again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 2% support Trump, while 94% back the former vice president.

In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden has wide leads among 2016 third-party voters (48%-33%) and nonvoters (64%-27%). Nonvoters are expected to make up roughly 10% of the electorate, though there are some indications in early vote totals that it could be significantly higher.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Suburbs Back Challenger

Urban voters prefer Biden by a 22-point margin, matching Trump's advantage among rural voters, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update finds.

The big difference this year could be suburban voters, who make up close to half of the electorate. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump, 55% to 42%. In IBD/TIPP daily Biden vs. Trump polls starting Oct. 12, Biden's lead in the suburbs has held at 8 points or higher. By comparison, exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%.

Presidential Poll Demographics

IBD/TIPP's latest Trump vs. Biden poll shows the president now leading by 4 points among senior citizens, 50%-46%. Trump won handily among seniors in 2016, 53%-44%, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.

Meanwhile, the latest Trump vs. Biden poll shows the Democrat leading by 26 points, 55%-39%, among voters age 18-44. Biden has a narrow 49%-48% edge among voters 45-64 in the latest presidential poll.

The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men by 5 points, 50%-45%. Trump carried the group by 11 points in 2016.

Women favor the Democrat by a 12-point margin, 54%-42%, in the latest Biden vs. Trump poll update. Trump is outperforming his 15-point deficit among women in 2016, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll suggests.

White voters favor Trump by a 6-point margin, 51%-45%, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016, the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds.

However, Trump is outperforming his 2016 results among black and Hispanic voters. The average of the past five polls, used to limit volatility in the small sample, shows black voters back Biden 86%-8%. That's shy of Clinton's 85-point margin in 2016.

Meanwhile, the five-day average shows Trump trailing 35%-63% among Hispanic voters. Trump lost 28%-66% among Hispanics in 2016.

More data on the income, religion and education of voters in the Trump vs. Biden poll can be found at the main IBD/TIPP tracking poll page.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Chance Of 2016 Surprise?

In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was among very few polls that predicted a Trump 2016 surprise. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

IBD/TIPP's latest Trump vs. Biden poll margin of +4.7 points for the Democrat once again makes it an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden has a 7.5-point lead.

Republicans again appear more enthused about their candidate, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds. Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll finds important contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Biden leads by 6 points among independents, a swing group that Trump carried by 43%-42% in 2016, Pew says.

Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll continues to show the Democrat with a solid lead among suburban voters, who helped lift Trump to victory in 2016.

Thursday's final presidential debate may have been the last real opportunity for Trump to shake up the race. The economy was hotly debated, with strong disagreements over the minimum wage and the future of fossil fuels. However, Trump's effort to shift the focus of the presidential race may struggle to gain traction amid the surge in coronavirus cases, including in key battleground states.

"We're rounding the corner. It's going away," Trump said in Thursday's debate, while Biden warned of a "dark winter" ahead.

2020 Election Early Voting Wild Card

The new IBD/TIPP presidential poll, taken over five days, shows that 42% of voters have already cast ballots, including 55% of Biden voters and 30% of Trump supporters. That means there are fewer votes still in play than in a normal election. However, the unprecedented level of mail-in voting, which brings the potential for disqualified ballots, is a wild card.

Trump's Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1%. If state polls are correct, Biden may be cutting into Trump's 2016 advantage in red states like Texas, Georgia and Ohio. That could make the popular vote even less of a predictor than it was in 2016. TIPP President Raghavan Mayur figures Trump could lose the national popular vote total by 3 points and still have a chance.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Investors OK With The Democrat

So far, investors seem to have largely ignored Trump's claims that Biden's economic policies will be disastrous, which he repeated in the final presidential debate. "If he gets in, you will have a Depression, the likes of which you've never seen. Your 401(k)s will go to hell, and it'll be a very, very sad day for this country."

Self-described investors, with at least $10,000 in household-owned stocks or mutual funds, are almost evenly divided in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update. Investors narrowly back Biden, 49%-48%. The final 2016 IBD/TIPP presidential poll showed Trump winning investors, 48%-42%.

Among noninvestors, Biden leads by 52%-42%, reflecting his advantage among modest-income voters.

Regardless of their own voting preferences, investors seem to have mostly come to terms with the possibility of a Biden presidency and potential Democratic sweep. That would likely mean higher corporate taxes and higher taxes on investment gains. Yet Wall Street firms seem to think that a Democratic boost in federal spending can offset any near-term downside from tax hikes and more regulation. The stock market had rallied this month before this week's turbulence amid surging coronavirus cases and a lapse in fiscal stimulus.

On Monday, before the Dow Jones slid 1,163 points the past two days, IBD's The Big Picture column shifted its market outlook, a yellow light for new stock purchases. Keep tabs on the daily afternoon column to find out when the green light returns.

Wall Street is hoping that an extended court fight over the election's outcome may be avoided. The 2000 recount coincided with a stock market pullback of nearly 10%, though that was during the 2000-2002 bear market.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Whose Voters Are More Committed?

How secure is Joe Biden's advantage over Donald Trump? A number of questions in the IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll try to tease that out.

President Trump has an advantage when it comes to voters' intensity of support. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 77% back him strongly, vs. 71% among intended Biden voters.

The IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds that 7% of Trump supporters and 8% of Biden backers say they're at least somewhat likely to change their mind before Election Day.

Despite Biden's lead, just 36% of voters expect him to win, while 37% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 45% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 38% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden. The big difference comes from rural areas, where 68% say their neighbors back Trump.

IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Details

The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,086 registered and 945 likely voters, from Oct. 24 through Oct. 28. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 346 Democrats, 316 Republicans and 248 independents.

The Trump vs. Biden poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.


Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets


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