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IBD/TIPP Day 8 Daily Tracking Analysis

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds that energized Republican voters are keeping President Donald Trump within reach of former Vice President Joe Biden. But IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update also shows how much Trump is struggling to close the deal with voters who backed him in 2016.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 5.2 points, 49.6%-44.4%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.

2020 Presidential Poll Trend: Four-Way Race

Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden's support has slipped from 51.9% to 49.6% in a four-way race. Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising from 43.4% to 44.4%. Biden's lead peaked at 8.6 points in Tuesday's presidential poll. Yet it has steadied out near the 5-point mark in three of the past four Trump vs. Biden poll updates.

Biden's narrower support reflects Trump's gain and more voters who are undecided or decline to say whom they support.

For more details, check out the IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll page.IBD Tracking Page

Head-To-Head Trump Vs Biden Poll

In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 6.2 points, 50.2%-44.0%. Biden's support has slipped 2.5 points since Oct. 12 in the one-on-one matchup, while Trump's support is up 1.7 points.

2020 Presidential Poll: Party Breakdown

Joe Biden holds a 47%-36% lead among likely independent voters in IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update. Yet Donald Trump is now having an easier time corralling Republicans than Biden is having in nailing down Democratic votes. Biden leads 92%-5.5% among Democrats. Trump leads 94%-4% among Republicans.

2016 Voters In 2020 Election

Still, the latest Trump vs. Biden poll highlights what could be a big problem for the president. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 8% say they now support Biden while 89% say they'll back him again. Biden is doing much better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 2% say they support Trump, while 95% back the former vice president.

In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden gets more support than Trump among 2016 third-party voters (39%-31%) and nonvoters (62%-26%).

2020 Election Poll: Still No Sign Of 2016 Repeat, But It's A Race

In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some stark contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Biden's 10-point lead among independents in the new IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is a big turnaround from 2016. Trump carried independents 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.

Seniors and suburban voters helped lift Trump to victory in 2016, but the president lags with both groups by double-digit margins in the latest IBD/TIPP Biden vs. Trump poll.

Still, now that the race has tightened and GOP voters are rallying around Trump, the president has a fighting chance. The Oct. 22 debate, a coronavirus resurgence as well as progress toward a medical breakthrough, the Supreme Court nomination fight and the fate of fiscal stimulus negotiations could all shape the Trump vs. Biden race's final weeks. The unprecedented level of mail-in voting, which brings the potential for disqualified ballots, is a wild card.

Trump's Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1%. However, no candidate has won the presidency with a bigger popular vote deficit since 1874, when Rutherford B. Hayes lost by 3%.

The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden's lead has grown from 6.6 points before the first debate and Trump's coronavirus case to 8.9 points currently.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Suburbs Back Challenger

Urban voters prefer Biden by a 24-point margin, the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll update finds. Rural voters back Trump by a 20-point margin. That's similar to 2016's divide. Yet the suburbs may be shaping up to be the big difference this year. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump, 52% to 41%. By comparison, exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%.

That explains why Trump made a blunt appeal to suburban voters — particularly suburban women — while campaigning in Pennsylvania last week. "Suburban women, will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?"

Trump was referring to a fair-housing regulation adopted by President Obama's administration and later rolled back by Trump. The rule altered criteria for awarding federal funds to overcome historic patterns of segregation.

Seniors Split From Trump In 2020 Presidential Poll

Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung to Biden. Seniors back the former vice president, 53%-42%, in IBD/TIPP's latest Trump vs. Biden poll. Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.

Meanwhile, Biden is leading Trump among voters age 18-44, 53%-37.5%, in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update. Trump leads 52%-44% lead among voters 45-64.

President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors, who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic. After his release from the hospital, Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health. The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out drug cards worth $200 to tens of millions of seniors.

More 2020 Election Poll Demographics

The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men, 49%-45%, more narrowly than his 11-point advantage in 2016. Women favor the Democrat by a 53%-40% margin in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update, a bit less than Trump's 15-point deficit among women in 2016.

White voters favor Trump by 9 points, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016, the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds.Black voters back Biden, 87%-9%, in today's presidential poll update. Trump trails Biden among Hispanics, 27%-68% in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll. In 2016, Trump lost among Hispanic voters, 28%-66%.

More data on the income, religion and education of voters in the Biden vs. Trump poll can be found at the main IBD/TIPP tracking poll page.

Biden Vs Trump Poll: Investors Break With Trump

Self-described investors, with at least $10,000 in household-owned stocks or mutual funds, favor Biden, 53%-42%. The final 2016 IBD/TIPP presidential poll showed Trump winning the group, 48%-42%.

Yet the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update shows noninvestors back the president by a 2-point margin. Earlier IBD/TIPP presidential poll updates showed Biden dominating that group. Relatedly, IBD/TIPP now shows Trump with an 8-point advantage among voters with incomes of $30,000-$50,000, a group Biden had led by a double-digit margin.

Regardless of their own voting preferences, investors seem to be warming to a Biden presidency and potential Democratic sweep. That would likely mean higher corporate taxes and higher taxes on investment gains. Yet this month's stock market rally has come as a Biden victory has looked more likely. Wall Street may be more hopeful that an extended court fight over the election's outcome may be avoided. The 2000 recount coincided with a stock market pullback of nearly 10%. Investors also are assuming that a Democratic boost in federal spending will offset any near-term downside from tax hikes and more regulation.

So far, Wall Street seems to be ignoring Trump's warning that stocks would face a reckoning under Biden. Trump tweeted on Monday, "Remember, Stock Market at an All Time High, and going up. 401k's at RECORD. With Sleepy Joe comes Tax Increases, jobs losses and DEPRESSION like never seen before!!! VOTE!!!"

Biden Vs Trump Poll: Whose Voters Are More Committed?

How secure is Joe Biden's advantage over Donald Trump? A number of questions in the IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll try to tease that out.

President Trump has a moderate advantage when it comes to voter intensity. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 75% back him strongly, vs. 68% among intended Biden voters.

The IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds that 9% of likely voters say they're at least somewhat likely to change their mind before Election Day. Among Trump backers, 9% say they may change their mind, while 8% of Biden voters are still up for grabs.

Despite Biden's moderate 2020 election poll lead, just 38% of voters expect him to win, matching the 38% who think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 49% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 35% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.So far, 34% of Biden voters say they've already voted, vs. 14% of Trump voters. Only 34% of Biden supporters plan to vote on Election Day, but 67% of Trump backers plan to do so.

IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Details

The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,075 registered and 949 likely voters, from Oct. 14 through Oct. 18. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 354 Democrats, 318 Republicans and 261 independents.

The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.

Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.



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