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Presidential Poll: Joe Biden's Lead Bounces As Donald Trump 2016 Voters Slip Away, IBD/TIPP Shows

The latest presidential poll update from IBD/TIPP finds Joe Biden's lead rebounding as President Donald Trump continues to see 2016 supporters slip away. Suburban voters are again backing the former vice president by a double-digit margin, IBD/TIPP's new Biden vs. Trump poll shows.

The latest 2020 election poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 4.9 points, 49.6%-44.7%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.8%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.

2020 Presidential Poll Trend: Four-Way Race

Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched Oct. 12, Biden's support has slipped 2.3 points, from 51.9%. Trump poll numbers have climbed 1.3 points since starting at 43.4%. But Trump's support backtracked in today's poll after hitting a high-water mark of 46% on Wednesday.

Biden's lead peaked at 8.6 points in IBD/TIPP's Oct. 13 presidential poll. The race's tightest point came on Tuesday, Oct. 20, when Biden led by 2.3 points.

For more details, check out the IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll page.

Head-To-Head Biden Vs Trump Poll

In a head-to-head Biden vs. Trump poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 4.2 points, 49.8%-45.6%.

Biden's head-to-head lead widened from just 1.8 points on Wednesday, his smallest lead to date. Biden has led by as much as 10.4 points, in the Oct. 12 presidential poll. Biden's support has slipped 2.9 points since Oct. 12 in the one-on-one matchup, while Trump's support is up 3.3 points.

Biden's head-to-head lead is slightly narrower because Trump sheds a bit more support to the Libertarian candidate in a four-way race.

2020 Presidential Poll: Party Breakdown

Joe Biden's lead among likely independent voters widened to 47%-40% in IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update. In the prior two Biden vs. Trump polls, the Democratic nominee's lead among this swing group had narrowed to 4 points, after earlier reaching double digits.

Meanwhile, Biden leads 92%-6% among Democrats, while Trump leads 91%-6% among Republicans.

2016 Voters In 2020 Election

The latest Biden vs. Trump poll continues to highlight a problem that has only gotten worse for the the president: wayward 2016 Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 8.5% say they now support Biden while just 88% say they've decided to back him again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 3% say they support Trump, while 93% back the former vice president.

In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden gets more support than Trump among 2016 third-party voters (46%-24%) and nonvoters (53%-39%).

2020 Election Poll: Shades Of 2016?

In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate. Likewise, the IBD/TIPP Poll correctly predicted that President Obama would outperform expectations in 2012.

IBD/TIPP's latest Biden vs. Trump poll margin of +4.9 points for the Democrat again makes it something of an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden's lead has grown from 6.6 points before the first debate and Trump's coronavirus case to 7.5 points currently, though the more recent trend has been down.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has more differences than similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate. Biden's 7-point lead among independents in the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is a big contrast from 2016. Trump carried independents 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.

Seniors and suburban voters helped lift Trump to victory in 2016. Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Biden vs. Trump poll shows the Democrat winning both groups, though his lead among seniors has slipped.

If Trump can't reverse his weakness among those groups, he'll need a different formula for winning in 2020. Yet events could still reshape the race. Tonight's debate, a coronavirus resurgence as well as progress toward a medical breakthrough, the Supreme Court nomination fight and the fate of fiscal stimulus negotiations could all change minds during the last 12 days of the Trump vs. Biden race. The unprecedented level of mail-in voting, which brings the potential for disqualified ballots, is a wild card.

Trump's Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1%. No candidate has won the presidency with a bigger popular vote deficit since 1874, when Rutherford B. Hayes lost by 3%.

If state polls are correct, Biden may be cutting into Trump's 2016 advantage in red states like Texas and Ohio. That could make the popular vote even less of a predictor than it was in 2016.

Biden Vs Trump Poll: Suburbs Back Challenger

Urban voters prefer Biden by a 20-point margin, the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll update finds. Rural voters back Trump by a 28-point margin. That's similar to 2016's divide.

Yet the suburbs may be the big difference this year. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump, 52.5% to 40%. By comparison, exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%.

That explains why Trump made a blunt appeal to suburban voters — particularly suburban women — while campaigning in Pennsylvania last week. "Suburban women, will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?"

Trump was referring to a fair-housing regulation adopted by President Obama's administration and later rolled back by Trump. The rule altered criteria for awarding federal funds to overcome historic patterns of segregation.

Seniors Are Key Swing Group In 2020 Presidential Poll

Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung toward Biden, but the gap has narrowed. Seniors back the former vice president, 49%-46%, in IBD/TIPP's latest Biden vs. Trump poll, but his lead had been in double digits. Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.

Meanwhile, Biden is leading Trump among voters age 18-44, 53%-39%, in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update. Trump leads 49%-47% among voters 45-64.

President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors, who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic. After his release from the hospital, Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health. The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out drug cards worth $200 to tens of millions of seniors.

More 2020 Election Poll Demographics

The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men, 51%-45%, more narrowly than his 11-point advantage in 2016.

Women favor the Democrat by 53.5%-40% in the latest Biden vs. Trump poll update, slightly narrower than Trump's 15-point deficit among women in 2016.

White voters favor Trump by 10 points, 52%-42%, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016, the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds.

Black voters back Biden, 90%-7%, in today's presidential poll update, nearly equaling Clinton's 85-point advantage in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump trails Biden among Hispanics, 31%-64% in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll. In 2016, Trump lost among Hispanic voters, 28%-66%.

More data on the income, religion and education of voters in the Biden vs. Trump poll can be found at the main IBD/TIPP tracking poll page. IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll

Biden Vs Trump Poll: Investors Break With Trump

So far, Wall Street seems to be ignoring Trump's warning that stocks would face a reckoning under Biden. Trump tweeted last week, "Remember, Stock Market at an All Time High, and going up. 401k's at RECORD. With Sleepy Joe comes Tax Increases, jobs losses and DEPRESSION like never seen before!!! VOTE!!!"

Self-described investors, with at least $10,000 in household-owned stocks or mutual funds, favor Biden, 52%-42%. The final 2016 IBD/TIPP presidential poll showed Trump winning the group, 48%-42%.

The latest Biden vs. Trump poll update also shows the Democrat regaining a lead among noninvestors, 48%-47%.

Biden is winning among voters with income below $30,000, 53%-41%. However, Trump has a 7-point advantage among voters with incomes of $30,000-$50,000 in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll.

Regardless of their own voting preferences, investors seem to be warming to a Biden presidency and potential Democratic sweep. That would likely mean higher corporate taxes and higher taxes on investment gains. Yet this month's stock market rally has come as a Biden victory had looked likely. Wall Street may be more hopeful that an extended court fight over the election's outcome may be avoided. The 2000 recount coincided with a stock market pullback of nearly 10%, though that was during the 2000-2002 bear market. Investors also are assuming that a Democratic boost in federal spending will offset any near-term downside from tax hikes and more regulation.

Biden Vs Trump Poll: Whose Voters Are More Committed?

How secure is Joe Biden's advantage over Donald Trump? A number of questions in the IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll try to tease that out.

President Trump has a clear advantage when it comes to voters' intensity of support. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 77% back him strongly, vs. 65% among intended Biden voters.

The IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds that 10% of likely voters say they're at least somewhat likely to change their mind before Election Day. Voters who say they're very likely to reconsider include 8% of Biden backers and 6% of Trump supporters.

Meanwhile, 40% of voters expect Biden to win and 37% think Trump will prevail. Yet 48% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden. The big difference comes from rural areas, where 72% say their neighbors back Trump.

So far, 42% of Biden voters say they've already voted, vs. 16% of Trump voters. Only 34% of Biden supporters plan to vote on Election Day, but 64% of Trump backers plan to do so.

IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Details

The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,114 registered and 965 likely voters, from Oct. 17 through Oct. 21. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 359 Democrats, 329 Republicans and 268 independents.

The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.

Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.


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